An extended summer

Two days back, I landed in my hometown Pune around 2 PM, after an absence of almost a month. As our plane touched down on the runway I looked out thorough the window, the entire airport looked as if lit up brightly with pure white light. As I alighted from the aircraft, through a step ladder; no aerobridge was provided by the airline on that day; I realised that the pure white light that I had imagined from the window of the aircraft was in reality harsh and blinding sunlight, making all of us sun blinded. With one hand near my forehead and another one pulling the hand baggage, I reached the arrival building, already feeling tired by the sunlight.

A month before, when I had left from the same airport, though at slightly later time in the day, it was very hot with temperature hovering around 40 degrees. But that was the end of May and in any case, the weather was supposed to be hot. But now, in the beginning of July, when the weather in Pune is supposed to be cool and balmy, I was experiencing an unusual extended summer.

It is not that this year's unusual kind of weather is something that has never happened before. Vagaries of monsoon are very well known to everyone in India. I distinctly remember that in year 1992, entire months of June, July and first week of August went completely dry. The rains came after 9^th August. Perhaps, we are feeling the severity more this year, because of the fact that the drought is here after three or four years of plentiful monsoon rains. This is also the reason why every one is talking about the drought and that is why absence of rains is being felt by most of the people.

This year, we have had ample forewarning. In the month of February 2014 itself, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology had said that an El Niño weather pattern may occur in the coming months, parching Australia and parts of Asia while bringing rains to South America. Then again in April 2014, they came up with a report that said, El Nino is almost a certainty and predicted that the chance of an El Nino weather event developing in 2014 now exceeded 70 percent. El Nino phenomenon, that occurs roughly every three to five years, causes an unusual warming of the east equatorial Pacific and associated wind changes usually results in weak monsoons in India and is very crucial for the country.

The Australian weather bureau updated its forecast about El Nino this week on 1^st July 2014. It now says:

“There were changes in the wind patterns over the Pacific in the past fortnight that appear to be driven by the warming surface waters in the ocean. These changes would need to persist for several weeks in order for an El Nino to be considered established, and it remains possible they are simply related to shorter term weather variability. The atmospheric signals over the Pacific are in line with the next stage of El Nino's evolution. If the pattern endures, El Nino could set in earlier.”

However at present, Australian weather bureau is continuing to stick to its earlier assessment of a September onset of El Nino. This could be considered as good news for India, because if it develops only by September, the monsoon in India may not be affected that much. But an earlier onset, may hit rains in the country. Indian weather bureau has already predicted 93% of normal rains for the June-September season. With month of June already gone, we still have a window of two months before El Nino develops as suggested by Australian weather bureau. There is a good chance that we may have rains over next two months and I wish that it happens, because if it does not, then consequences for western India are particularly likely to be very serious, Western India being entirely dependent on monsoon rains for drinking water and fodder for farm animals.

3^rd July 2014

Little boy is back!

It is said that any bad news is usually true. In February 2014, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology came out with a prediction which said that an El Niño weather pattern may occur in the coming months, parching Australia and parts of Asia while bringing rains to South America. International climate models surveyed by this bureau, showed that Pacific Ocean temperatures were approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds in the austral winter. It said that the tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed substantially in recent weeks and further warming is likely in the coming months. The US Climate Prediction Center and other global weather institutions also then predicted possibility of less rain in India during Monsoon this year due to the El Nino effect.

If the latest update from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is to believed, El Nino is almost a certainty. Bureau now says that the chance of an El Nino weather event developing in 2014 now exceeds 70 percent. That is definitely something we all should worry.

El Nino (means little boy in Spanish), warms the surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. This warming up of ocean can be first observed around December in Peruvian waters of South America. This phenomenon occurs cyclically, after every three to seven years. The phenomenon is quite insignificant but the after effects are quite devastating for the humans. Usually it leads to more rainfall in South America and substantial drop in the fish catch. El Nino has a dramatic effect on the trade winds across Pacific, blowing to the west. This results into triggering drought in Southeast Asia , Australia and parts of South Africa. It also reduces Monsoon rainfall in India, which impacts crops and livelihood of people. It generates cyclones in the central Pacific and stormy weather in southern and western US. The number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, however tend to go down. In Australia, El-Nino can cause cut in wheat crop output, reduces water supplies by cutting river flows, shrink city reservoirs and dry out forests, which can trigger bush fires. As against this it increases rain in North America , improving crop prospects. Major El-Nino's have happened in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2002-03. The severe El Nino in 1998 killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage to crops, infrastructure and mines in Australia and other parts of Asia.

So what are the prospects for this year for India and Asia. El Nino usually means extremely dry weather in India. The worst El Nino perhaps happened in 1997/98, which caused massive flooding along China's Yangtze river killing more than 1,500 people. El Nino can create severe drought in India, resulting in a major downfall in crop production. 2009, El Nino brought down monsoon rainfall in India. Since most of India's agriculture depends on monsoon rainfall, it could bring the agricultural production down substantially. Not only that, most of the people in peninsular India are totally dependent on rain water for their daily needs. If the rainfall is scanty, it would create water shortages and cities in peninsular India would go thirsty. It could also lead to a worst drought in Deccan. Sugar in India is derived from Sugar cane. This is one crop that requires huge quantities of water. With a scanty rainfall the sugar cane crop yields are expected to be poor, which means that international sugar prices are likely to hit the roof.

During March, Deccan plateau was badly hit with several hail storms damaging major crops which were almost ready for harvesting. If rains fail in coming months, the scenario is bound to be exceptionally grim.

Perhaps the worst spectre from India's point of view, besides the loss in agricultural production, is the likely drinking water shortage. Many states like Maharashtra are totally dependent on rainwater for drinking water needs. Fodder shortage may be another source of worry. In many parts of India, huge hydroelectric generating stations provide electric power. These depend entirely upon the rain water to generate power. Any drought like condition is bound to reduce availability of power.

India is in the process of electing a new Government right now and the results are expected by 16^th May 2014. El Nino might turn out to be the first major challenge before the new Government, which would have to brace up to meet the coming situation.

11^th April 2014

Return of the Spectre

It’s been almost five years, since this little boy,  made his last visit bringing unfathomable miseries and hardship to the people of Asia. Whenever he decides to visit, he always brings along with him, disasters starting from record floods to crippling droughts, wildfires and wild swings in weather patterns. The worst part of it is that the visit actually takes place somewhere far away, in eastern and central pacific, but the devastating effects are felt in Asia and cost Billions of Dollars to Asian Economies.

The Little boy is none other than El Nino (means little boy in Spanish), which warms the surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. This warming up of ocean can be first observed around December in Peruvian waters of South America. This phenomenon occurs cyclically, after every three to seven years. The phenomenon is quite insignificant but the after effects are quite devastating for the humans. Usually it leads to more rainfall in South America and substantial drop in the fish catch. El Nino has a dramatic effect on the trade winds across Pacific, blowing to the west. This results into triggering drought in Southeast Asia , Australia and parts of South Africa. It also reduces Monsoon rainfall in India, which impacts crops and livelihood of people. It generates cyclones in the central Pacific and stormy weather in southern and western US. The number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, however tend to go down. In Australia, El-Nino can cause cut in wheat crop output, reduces water supplies by cutting river flows, shrink city reservoirs and dry out forests, which can trigger bush fires. As against this it increases rain in North America , improving crop prospects. Major El-Nino's have happened in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2002-03. The severe El Nino in 1998 killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage to crops, infrastructure and mines in Australia and other parts of Asia.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology says that an El Niño weather pattern may occur in the coming months, parching Australia and parts of Asia while bringing rains to South America. International climate models surveyed by this bureau, show that Pacific Ocean temperatures are approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds in the austral winter. It says that the tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed substantially in recent weeks and further warming is likely in the coming months. The US Climate Prediction Center and other global weather institutions have already predicted possibility of less rain in India during Monsoon this year due to the El Nino effect.

Along with scanty rain prediction for 2014, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, is also predicting that depending on the size of the El Niño, 2014 and, more likely, 2015, might turn out to be the warmest years on record. Gavin Schmidt, deputy director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, says that during the Earth’s warmest years, 2010 and 2005, similar weather patterns were seen. Indonesia’s Meteorological, Climatology and Geophysics Agency also says that it’s been almost five years since the last El Nino event. An El Niño trend is likely to develop this year.

What does this mean for India? El Nino, which occurs every four to 12 year cyclically had last hit India's Monsoon in 2009, leading to the worst drought in the country in nearly four decades. If El Nino hits this year, then a grim prediction awaits India saying that El Nino conditions may possibly impact Monsoon this year, triggering drought in parts of India. El Nino can create severe drought in India, resulting in a major downfall in crop production. It would also bring down soybean, palm oil, sugar and rice yields from Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. In Australia it brings down crops of wheat, barley and canola. In China, Corn production would be affected. Only plus point of El Nino is that a strong El-Nino is beneficial to crops such as coffee and cocoa and keep their global prices in check.

Scientists in India are still debating about whether El Nino conditions will hit India and what would be it's intensity? However precautionary measures need to start almost immediately. A senior scientist, engaged with research programme on Climate Change, agriculture and Food security (CCAFS), says that the policy makers can certainly not take a chance. He adds:

“Though India had enough food-grain stock to meet any drought situation, there is a need to take precautionary measures to protect the vulnerable farmers. Extending effective insurance cover, timely availability of weather information and proper distribution of water, seeds and other ingredients are some of the measures which will help the country in adverse situation.”

There are other factors too, besides the loss in agricultural production from India's point of view. First is the drinking water shortage. Many states like Maharashtra are totally dependent on rainwater for drinking water needs. Fodder shortage may be another source of worry. In many parts of India, huge hydroelectric generating stations provide electric power. These depend entirely upon the rain water to generate power. Any drought like condition is bound to reduce availability of power.

This grim scenario appears to be a likely possibility, for which we need to brace ourselves up. The shortages however are always transitory in nature and can always be managed. What is the most scary part of this scenario is the effect that this would have on economy and the Indian Rupee, which are already reeking under double digit inflation and costly money.

Unfortunately there are no quick measures or remedies.

27^th February 2014

Why India prefers this little girl ?

Two absolutely natural but cyclic phenomenon bring unfathomable miseries and hardship to people of Asia. They bring along with them, disasters starting from record floods to crippling droughts, wildfires and wild swings in weather patterns. Actually, these natural phenomenon take place somewhere far away, in eastern and central pacific, but the devastating effects cost Billions of Dollars to Asian Economies.

The Little boy or El Nino in Spanish, warms the surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. This warming up of ocean can be first observed around December in Peruvian waters of South America. This phenomenon occurs cyclically, after every three to seven years. The phenomenon is quite insignificant but the after effects are quite devastating for the humans. Usually it leads to more rainfall in South America and substantial drop in the fish catch. El Nino has a dramatic effect on the trade winds across Pacific, blowing to the west. This results into triggering drought in Southeast Asia , Australia and parts of South Africa. It also reduces Monsoon rainfall in India, which impacts crops and livelihood of people. It generates cyclones in the central Pacific and stormy weather in southern and western US. The number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, however tend to go down In Australia, El-Nino can cause cut in wheat crop output, reduces water supplies by cutting river flows, shrink city reservoirs and dry out forests, which can trigger bush fires. As against this it increases rain in North America , improving crop prospects. Major El-Nino's have happened in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2002-03. The severe El Nino in 1998 killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage to crops, infrastructure and mines in Australia and other parts of Asia.

When little girl or La-Nina occurs, it produces exactly opposite effects. Here, the surface temperatures of the eastern and central Pacific ocean cool down substantially. This triggers stronger trade winds across the Pacific and around northern Australia, triggering above average rains and number of cyclones. In Indonesia and parts of Australia, La Nina can bring flooding rains. In Argentina and the US plains, La Nina can trigger drought. La Nina causes more hurricanes in Atlantic and fewer in Pacific. Major La Nina events occurred in 1973-76, 1988-89 and 2010-12.

Even though this little boy and girl create global impacts, their effects on Asian economies are particularly severe. El Nino can create severe drought in India, resulting in a major downfall in crop production. It would also bring down soybean, palm oil, sugar and rice yields from Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. In Australia it brings down crops of wheat, barley and canola. In China, Corn production would be affected. But a strong El-Nino is beneficial to crops such as coffee and cocoa and keep their global prices in check. La Nina causes exactly opposite effect to El-Nino. The La-Nina effect of 2010-12 has brought bumper rains to India and a record production of food grains.

This little boy and girl are such dominant factors affecting various crop productions in Asia that the commodity markets can be completely spooked or floored, if punters sense La-Nina, whereas for the Governments and ordinary people, the effect is exactly opposite. They welcome La-Nina. The commodity markets may get extremely bullish, even at the whiff of El-Nino, whereas on Governments and ordinary people the effects are just opposite.

The Asian Monsoon or rainy season has just began with Thailand getting first rains in May. Indian meteorological department has predicted normal summer rains as there is no trace of El-Nino as yet. In India, a male child is still preferred by many over a girl or a female child. Yet with so much at stake on the timely arrivals of the Monsoon, I am sure that everyone in India would always prefer this Little girl La-Nina and may never want this little boy, El-Nino any time at all.

11 May 2012