Two
days back, I landed in my hometown Pune around 2 PM, after an absence
of almost a month. As our plane touched down on the runway I looked
out thorough the window, the entire airport looked as if lit up
brightly with pure white light. As I alighted from the aircraft,
through a step ladder; no aerobridge was provided by the airline on
that day; I realised that the pure white light that I had imagined
from the window of the aircraft was in reality harsh and blinding
sunlight, making all of us sun blinded. With one hand near my
forehead and another one pulling the hand baggage, I reached the
arrival building, already feeling tired by the sunlight.
A
month before, when I had left from the same airport, though at
slightly later time in the day, it was very hot with temperature
hovering around 40 degrees. But that was the end of May and in any
case, the weather was supposed to be hot. But now, in the beginning
of July, when the weather in Pune is supposed to be cool and balmy, I
was experiencing an unusual extended summer.
It is
not that this year's unusual kind of weather is something that has
never happened before. Vagaries of monsoon are very well known to
everyone in India. I distinctly remember that in year 1992, entire
months of June, July and first week of August went completely dry.
The rains came after 9th
August. Perhaps, we are feeling the severity more this year, because
of the fact that the drought is here after three or four years of
plentiful monsoon rains. This is also the reason why every one is
talking about the drought and that is why absence of rains is being
felt by most of the people.
This
year, we have had ample forewarning. In the month of February 2014
itself, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology had said that an El Niño
weather pattern may occur in the coming months, parching Australia
and parts of Asia while bringing rains to South America. Then again
in April 2014, they came up with a report that said, El Nino is
almost a certainty and predicted that the chance of an El Nino
weather event developing in 2014 now exceeded 70 percent. El Nino
phenomenon, that occurs roughly every three to five years, causes an
unusual warming of the east equatorial Pacific and associated wind
changes usually results in weak monsoons in India and is very crucial
for the country.
The
Australian weather bureau updated its forecast about El Nino this
week on 1st
July 2014. It now says:
“There
were changes in the wind patterns over the Pacific in the past
fortnight that appear to be driven by the warming surface waters in
the ocean. These changes would need to persist for several weeks in
order for an El Nino to be considered established, and it remains
possible they are simply related to shorter term weather variability.
The atmospheric signals over the Pacific are in line with the next
stage of El Nino's evolution. If the pattern endures, El Nino could
set in earlier.”
However
at present, Australian weather bureau is continuing to stick to its
earlier assessment of a September onset of El Nino. This could be
considered as good news for India, because if it develops only by
September, the monsoon in India may not be affected that much. But
an earlier onset, may hit rains in the country. Indian weather bureau
has already predicted 93% of normal rains for the June-September
season. With month of June already gone, we still have a window of
two months before El Nino develops as suggested by Australian weather
bureau. There is a good chance that we may have rains over next two
months and I wish that it happens, because if it does not, then
consequences for western India are particularly likely to be very
serious, Western India being entirely dependent on monsoon rains for
drinking water and fodder for farm animals.
3rd
July 2014
