Indian
media have given a go to an important byte of news, perhaps because
of their preoccupation with India's general election. Yet some
foreign media have picked it up and reported it. The news item says
that India has quietly agreed to pick up the tab for arms and
equipment from Russia to be supplied to Afghanistan to boost the
strength of the Afghan National Army (ANA). For any of those
readers, not familiar with situation in Afghanistan, the news may
appear weird, but it is not so. After its intervention in
Afghanistan, United states has spent billions of dollars in the past
decade, to rebuild the Afghan National Army, though it remains a
lightly armed force with defensive rather than offensive weapons. ANA
is a force today, well trained by the Americans. It uses American
equipments, arms and everything made in USA. Naturally a question
arises as to why they need Russian arms and why India has agreed to
pay for them.
ANA
might have developed into a great force, however it requires about
US$ 4 billion to run and pay for the wages of Afghan soldiers. US
and NATO forces are likely to exit Afghanistan in near future and with
their departure, one critical unanswered question remains: who is
going to pay the $4bn a year that the ANA needs to continue its
functioning and paying salaries for the soildiers? The US and NATO
are willing to foot part of the bill, but not for very long. Many
experts feel that the ANA will have to drastically reduce its size
anyway by next year, because Afghanistan would not be able to afford
to support 320,000 soldiers and policemen, who constitute the present
Afghan security forces.
Keeping
this future reality in mind, Afghanistan president has been asking
India for the Indian supply of heavy weapons to the ANA, such as long
range artillery, tanks and aircraft. India has however tactfully
declined to say yes so far even though in the month of October 2012,
India and Afghanistan signed a “Strategic Partnership Agreement,”
during visit of Afghan President Hamid Karzai to New Delhi. According
to the prime minister of India, this strategic partnership between
the two countries will create an "institutional framework"
so that India can help in Afghan "capacity building" in the
areas of education, development and people-to-people contacts.
Perhaps, what was also included in the agreement but not told by the
prime minister, were some clauses about substantial increase in
Indian commitments in training of Afghan security forces, including
the police.
India
has been one of Afghanistan's biggest donors, having pledged money
for projects ranging from road construction to the building of the
Afghan parliament. However India has scrupulously avoided any
involvement of Indian military personnel in the Afghan conflict
except perhaps a small contingent of Indo-Tibet border police
deployed their for protection of Indian engineers and workers working
on various projects.
Afghan
military commanders and intelligence officials have started
requesting India to provide direct military assistance under
“Strategic Partnership Agreement” signed between the two
countries in October. The requests were for 2.5 to 7 Ton cargo
capability medium trucks, light mountain artillery, along with
ordnance, bridge-laying equipment and engineering facilities.
Afghanistan also wants India to help build close air-support
capabilities for its troops, as there would be drastic scaling-down
of western forces in 2014.
After
showing reluctance for number of years to hand over to Afghanistan
any military supplies of strategic value, India has finally decided
to give to Afghanistan a set of three military transport choppers -
between March and May 2014. This will be the first tranche of defence
equipments supplied to that country. The three 'Dhruva' choppers are
being configured and constructed as per Afghan request at the
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in Bengaluru. Initially the
Afghanistan government wanted to have Russian-made helicopters.
However, Indians managed to convince them to take India manufactured
'Dhruva' helicopters. This was announced by India's foreign minister
while inaugurating jointly with President Karzai of Afghanistan, a
new agricultural university, Afghan National Agricultural Sciences
and Technology University (ANASTU) in Kandahar built with India's
assistance.
India's
policy towards Afghanistan has always been the extension of soft
power and good will and has so far managed it rather well much to the
chagrin of Pakistan, who keeps on viewing this increasingly close
relationship between Kabul and Delhi with suspicion and accuses India
that India’s intelligence services are using Afghanistan to back
secessionists in Balochistan, as well as Jihadists fighting the
Pakistani state.
However,
as the Americans prepare to leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014,
India seems to have realised that it can no longer avoid the real
issue and seems to have changed its tune. To start with, India has
agreed to pay the Russians for arms such as light artillery and
mortars to be delivered to Afghanistan. What confuses the observers
is the fact that ANA, which has been trained and equipped by
Americans, has agreed to take Russian arms. The reason for this
preference is that Afghans have long fought using Soviet weapons even
when the enemy was Russia itself and much prefer those to Western
arms.
Reuters
reports that India is expected to help Afghanistan restart an old
armaments factory near Kabul, refit old Soviet-era weapons, and step
up training of Afghan officers and special forces - something it has
already been doing in small numbers. Another hard to believe news is
that under US supervision and payment, Afghan air force was supplied
Russian-made M-17 helicopters by Russia. These helicopters have been
used by the forces of the Northern Alliance for many years in the war
against the Taliban. Russia and India indicate that Russian made
heavy weapons might be supplied to Afghanistan with payments coming
from India.
This
is going to annoy Pakistan surely and would escalate tensions, as
Afghanistan is bound to use the weapons on its eastern border.
India's latest move is a dramatic game changer and is likely to make
an impact over regional situation in the sub-continent.
10th
May 2014
