A war of Maps over south China sea

About 3 months ago, I reported to the readers about release of a new geographical atlas or a map by China, which showed that country as a continent. The new map, styled in a vertical fashion, showed China in the map very similar to United States. The map also showed China's claims on Indian soil as well as on the South China Sea ( the disputed areas including its numerous islets and reefs) appear like its national territory. More about the history of Chinese claims can be accessed here in another blogpost of mine; Expansionism not in Chinese DNA.

In this vertical atlas, Chinese cartographers had put in an imaginary curve consisting of a 10 dashes covering almost all areas of South China Sea and claimed that all areas under the line to be Chinese Territory. To be specific, nine dashes were shown in the South China Sea while the 10^th was placed near Taiwan, purportedly to signify it as a province of China. China's so-called nine-dash line claims 90 per cent of the 3.5 million sq km South China Sea in a tongue-shaped encirclement.

Chinese have produced in support of their claims, some historical facts, which they claim are true. Chinese claims are mainly concentrated around five areas ; Dongsha (Pratas), Xisha (Paracel), Zhongsha (Macclesfield Bank), Nansha (Spratly) and Scarborough Shoal in the north. China says that it gained "effective jurisdiction" over waters off the five island groups, when the ancestors of today's Chinese, first sailed there more than 2,000 years ago. It says that its naval forces exercised jurisdiction over Dongsha and Xisha islands during the Tang Dynasty (618-907), and that by the Song (960-1279) and Yuan (1271-1368) dynasties, over Zhongsha and Nansha. Their reach covered all the islands during the Ming (1368-1644) and Qing (1644-1911) dynasties, establishing China's maritime boundary in the South China Sea. China has been insisting that Scarborough shoal is Nanhai island, where Chinese explorer Guo Shoujing built a celestial observatory in 1279. China also uses the sea voyages of legendary Admiral Zheng He, from 1405 to 1433 as a basis for its claims over the South China Sea.

Out of these island groups, the Paracel islands named as Xisha by China are also claimed by Vietnam and Philippines lays claim to Spratly islands that China names as Nansha and also the oil-rich Scarborough Shoal to the north, as part of Philippine territory. In March 2014, the Philippines submitted to an international court in the Hague a 4,000-page memorandum disputing China's so-called nine-dash line.

To support it's case, Philippines now proposes to submit now another lot of about 60 ancient maps dating back to the Song Dynasty of China as secondary or corroborating evidence to a United Nations tribunal.

 

Map from year 1136 identifying China's farthest southern territory as Hainan

One of the maps dates back to year 1136. It identifies Hainan island as China's farthest southern territory. The rest of the maps show that since 1636, cartographers from Spain, France, Germany, the United States, Britain, the Netherlands and the Philippines have drawn one of the disputed islets in the South China Sea, the oil-rich Scarborough Shoal, as part of Philippine territory. Most of these maps are also part of the US Library of Congress' archives. Philippines says that the maps clearly identify China's southernmost territory as Hainan island, not James Shoal 1,700km further south into the South China Sea, or Nansha islands in the Spratly chain of islets, atolls, reefs and shoals.

MAP OF THE PHILIPPINES (1808): Published in Madrid from the surveys of the Malaspina Expedition.

An associate justice of the Supreme Court in Philippines,Mr Antonio Carpio, says that China itself had also placed Nanhai in the Paracel islands 722km from Scarborough. Therefore it is "quite ridiculous" for China to say that Chinese explorer Guo Shoujing built a celestial observatory in 1279 on Nanhai island Scarborough shoal, which in any case was barely just above water. He says China cannot claim the South China Sea in much the same way that India cannot claim the Indian Ocean, or Mexico the Gulf of Mexico.

The real question is whether China would heed or bother to any evidence at all as it appears to be in a belligerent mood so far refusing even to consider what other nations have to say. Meanwhile the war of maps goes on.

15^th September 2014

Tom and Jerry Games in South China Sea

Sometime back, I wrote a post about a ship intentionally wrecked in South China Sea- near the Second Thomas Shoal located at the southwestern end of the Philippine archipelago- about 200 Km west of Palawan island- to be precise. These Shoals are really two scattered groups of few rocks- that project out from the deep waters of the South China Sea. During low tides, much of the reef is above water. It even encloses a small lagoon. The rocks, known as “First Thomas Shoal” and “Second Thomas Shoal (also known as Ayungin),” are part of “Spratly islands” group and have gained in recent years some importance from a strategic point of view. Out of these two reefs, “Second Thomas Shoal is considered as a strategic gateway to Reed Bank, believed to be rich in oil and natural gas. Philippines claims that Reed bank tabletop, where all the oil and gas fields are supposed to be located, is within the country’s 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone.

There have been claims and counterclaims of littoral countries of the region, on these reefs, which are a part of Spratly islands. In 1999, in a sudden action, Malaysia occupied Erica Reef and Investigator Shoal. Responding to this, Philippines purposefully ran aground two ships, BRP Sierra Madre and BRP Benquet, on Ayungin (Second Thomas) Reef and Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal during the same year. China, claiming sovereignty over Spratly Islands, requested the Philippines to remove the grounded ships. The Philippines immediately replied that it will do so whenever it can remove the ships. However, the one on Scarborough Shoal, was the only ship that was removed. On the contrary , considering the importance of the Shoal as a gateway to reed bank, Philippines actually assigned soldiers to take shelter on the grounded ship at Ayungin Reef and they continue to do so even today.

BRP Sierra Madre is a huge, rusting World War Two, cargo vessel. Ever since Philippine navy intentionally ran it aground in 1999 to mark its claim to the reef, it is serving as an outpost for Filipino soldiers. Around eight Filipino soldiers live here for three months at a time, just to prove the point that it lies within Philippine’s 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) directly contesting the Chinese claims that the shoal-which it calls as Ren’ai reef- is part of its territory. China has been claiming 90 percent of the South China Sea as its own territory. Living conditions for Philippine soldiers living on BRP Sierra Madre are very harsh. The shoal itself is totally inhospitable and the soldiers are forced to confine themselves to the junk. Supplies of almost all necessities of life -even food and water- has to come from Philippines itself. To show to the Chinese, that the junk ship is a real Philippine military outpost, every day at dusk, the eight soldiers living on the ship, put on military fatigues and carry out a daily ceremony of lowering the Philippine flag.

To back up its claims on the region, Chinese coastguard ships- from its recently unified coastguard command- are now stationed around the shoal and have become a permanent fixture there. Luckily, these coastguard ships do not have the weaponry of military vessels. This ensures that during a confrontation things do not get out of control. The coastguard ships show a potent show of sovereignty though.

Around three weeks ago or on March 9^th, 2014, Chinese coast guard ships blocked two Philippine supply vessels from reaching BRP Sierra Madre. Philippines immediately launched a strong protest. United States was quick to call this act as provocative. The Philippines had to resort to air dropping food and water instead. To invite the attention of the world media to this latest international flashpoint, Philippines invited this week some reporters on board of a supply ship scheduled to visit BRP Sierra Madre to participate in the action, which were no way short of a Tom and Jerry action cartoon.

A Reuters report says:

“Things were going smoothly for the Philippine ship until it was spotted by a Chinese coastguard ship about an hour away from the Second Thomas Shoal. The Chinese boat picked up speed to come near the left of the white Philippine ship, honking its horn at least three times. The Chinese ship slowed down after a few minutes, but then a bigger coastguard vessel emerged, moving fast to cut the path of the Philippine boat. The Chinese sent a radio message to the Filipinos, saying they were entering Chinese territory. “We order you to stop immediately, stop all illegal activities and leave,” said the radio message, delivered in English. Philippino ship replied that its mission was to deliver provisions to Philippine troops stationed in the area. Philippine troops wearing civilian clothes and journalists then flashed “V” for the peace sign at the Chinese. Later Instead of stopping or reversing, the Philippine vessel picked up speed and eventually maneuvered away from the Chinese, entering waters that were too shallow for the bigger coastguard ships. Filipino troops on the civilian vessel clapped as they came within a few meters of the marooned transport ship, the BRP Sierra Madre. Supplies of food and water were then hauled up to troops on board.”

To an onlooker, things might have looked like a Cat and Mouse game. But it was a serious business because as many as 3 planes-a US navy plane, a Philippine military aircraft and a Chinese plane — flew above the ships at different intervals, indicating the seriousness of what was happening at the Shoal. Captain of the Philippine ships, perhaps was aware of this seriousness, when he said that if they hadn’t changed direction or course, they would have collided with Chinese ships, creating a major international incident.

After much delay, Philippines appear to have finally decided to file a case against China next week at an arbitration tribunal in The Hague, subjecting Beijing to international legal scrutiny over the waters for the first time. Philippines would be seeking a seeking a ruling to confirm its right to exploit the waters in its EEZ as allowed under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China remains adamant and has refused to participate in this case. It is very doubtful whether Chinese would take actual military action against Philippines in this case, as their case according to International law is very weak. With such intransigent attitude on China's part, the dispute is unlikely to get settled in near future and these cat and mouse games are likely to continue.

1^st April 2014 

p.s.

BBC reports on 2nd April 2014 that the Philippines has submitted evidence to a UN tribunal hearing its case against China's territorial claims in the South China Sea. 

2nd April 2014  

Pass the hat around!

In some international organizations like Rotary, there is a tradition of passing around a hat, to collect contributions from members, for a worthy cause during weekly meetings. A hat would be passed around and each and every member present, is supposed to put in his contribution according to his own wish. It never works in that way. Everything depends upon the money put in by the first member. If he does put in a large amount, everyone else is forced to contribute with at least equal amounts or more according to his social status, because of the peer pressure. A more effective version of this technique is an announcement of the first contribution by the chairman of the meeting. Others simply have no choice but to follow him at least or preferably surpass him with their contributions.

What is true for Rotary, also seems to hold true for the group of wealthy nations of the world. If a nation claims to be a super power, it also needs to behave like one. That appears to be the lesson for China from the latest controversy about its aid to Philippines, which was hit by one of the most disastrous typhoon 'Haiyan,' in first week of November 2013. The super storm hit Leyte and Samar provinces in the Philippines with sustained winds with speeds exceeding 250 kilometres an hour and gusts of over 300kph. What followed and caused the worst damage was a 5-metre high storm surge, which swept away the port-city of Tacloban like a tsunami wave. The official death toll stands at more than 2,300 victims drowned and some 11Million Filipinos have been affected.

The international aid started trickling in slowly. Asian Development bank topped the list with $500 Million in emergency loans and $23 Million in grants. UK gave in all $50 Million and sent some ships to help US announced $20m in humanitarian aid, 300 military personnel, aircraft carrier and other ships, military aircraft plus logistics support.. Australia gave A$30m ($28m, £17m) package, including aircraft, medical staff, shelter materials, water containers and hygiene kits. European commission announced a package of $11 Million. UAE and Japan announced aid packages $10 Million.

Even countries like South Korea announced aid packages of $5 Million. Indonesia offered logistical aid including aircraft, food, generators and medicine. But where was China? It first announced a measly grant of $100,000 followed by another $100,000 from the Chinese Red Cross. There was immediate criticism in western media. The Reuters news agency called it "relatively paltry"; Time Magazine described it as "measly" and "insulting". A TV anchor in US, called the Chinese as "stingy jerks." Stung by the criticism, Chinese announced a new aid package of $1.6Million. Even this amount remains still dwarfed by contributions by other nations. Surprisingly, even the Swedish furniture giant, Ikea, pledged $2.7Million.

China had donated earlier, in sharp contrast to its donation to Philippines, over $10m for Japan in the wake of its tsunami two years ago and almost $40m for countries affected by the 2004 Asian tsunami. A question arises therefore that why is China reluctant to give aid to Philippines. One answer to that question could be that countries are locked in a territorial dispute over islands in the South China Sea, which has worsened over the past year.

Chinese foreign ministry came up with a weak defence saying that China, too, was a victim of Typhoon Haiyan. But the figures of damage, 10 dead and an estimated $734m of damage, speak for themselves. State-run China Daily was more specific, saying: "Those China bashers must harbour ill intentions, aimed at either tarnishing China's image in the world arena or sowing further seeds of discord between China and the Philippines - as if the territorial dispute was not enough."

International political observers all feel that the damage by this incident to China's international reputation is significant. Super powers are not expected to behave like that. They should be able to differentiate between politics and charity.

18 November 2013

Going (Coco)nuts!

I distinctly remember that my primary school geography textbooks, always described coconut tree as 'Tree of Life.' One that is useful to us humans, in hundred ways. Besides the obvious uses of coconut water for drinking and the pulp known as Copra in Indian cooking, the textbooks described other uses for almost all the parts of this tree of life. Copra, yields oil, which is used for cooking as well as industrial and cosmetic purposes. The coconut husks are used to make coir, which is used in making ropes, carpets and beds. The branches are commonly used to cover the thatched roofing. The list is almost endless. Starting from use of coconut shells as fuel, coconut trunks, leaves, spathe, guinit and even roots are used in some way or other.

I am very much reminded of my primary school textbooks after I came across a news item about a new and novel use for the coconut oil derived from Copra, discovered by scientists in Philippines. This island archipelago faces Pacific ocean on east and South China Sea on west and is spread between 5 Deg. North to about 18 Deg. North Latitude. The weather is typically tropical, like most of the countries in south east Asia. Naturally, coconut trees are found in abundance in Philippines. It is therefore no wonder that Philippines is the world’s largest producer and exporter country of coconuts.

Philippine Coconut Authority pioneered research and experiments on the use of coconut biodiesel as fuel in 1983 itself, when a project was launched. Philippines became the first country in southeast Asia to enact the Biofuels Act in 2007, to have a law promoting the use of biofuels, created by blending of coconut oil and ethanol from sugar cane to Diesel and Gasolene. PCA is making a push now to mix in, more refined coconut oil with diesel. This should make diesel sold in the country, cheaper and better for health and the environment.

As per the 2007 Biofuels act, it is permissible for the oil companies to mix up to 2% of coco methyl ester, derived from coconut oil, in Diesel, to create a Diesel blend that can be sold to the public. It is also stipulated by law that by 2015, the Diesel sold to public can be blended with up to 5% of coco methyl ester. However, Philippine Coconut Authority wants to reach the 5% mark by this year itself (2013). They feel that this should create a 19.60 billion Philippine Peso (PHP) market for refined coconut oil and save as much as PHP 15.5 billion on imported fuel. To prove their point, Philippines government launched a 25-day study this week, which it hopes will convince transport groups and a national board to increase the amount of refined coconut oil that is blended in with diesel.

Blended Diesel is the fuel used by public buses and transports presently in Philippines. Besides public transport buses, the most popular mode of transport in Philippines is known as a “Jeepney.” It is actually a most gaudily decorated vechicle modeled after the U.S. Army jeeps used during World War II. In the present 25 days test, seven jeepneys will use a 2% blend for first five days, the level right now allowed by law, followed by a 5% blend for the next 20 days. The jeepneys will be tested for fuel economy, power efficiency and smoke emission levels. PAC feels that this test will convince the national board to immediately recommend a transition to the 5% coconut oil blend.

According to PAC, with use of 5% blend, the visible cloud of black smoke emitted by vehicles, which mainly consists of carbon and sulfur particulates, would reduce by as much as 80%. Also every liter of fossil diesel displaced by coconut biodiesel, would represent a carbon dioxide reduction of 3.5 kilogram per liter of fuel used.

This is all fine. But what about the economics? At present, things appear lucrative because the price of coco methyl ester has been lower than diesel in Philippines, which means that increasing the blend to 5% would lower the cost of the fuel for the transport sector there. But as demand increases for coconut oil, what is the guarantee that coconut oil prices would remain stable. Even if they remain stable, perhaps blended Diesel may remain an alternative for Philippines alone. In India for example, bulk coconut oil prices are around 62 Rupees per Kilogram. Diesel blending with refined coconut oil may not therefore work out to be profitable for the oil companies. Besides, if use of refined coconut oil in blending Diesel become popular in other countries, the international prices are bound to harden, which would make the whole exercise quite futile.

1 August 2013

A shipwreck in South China Sea

About 200 Km west of Palawan island, located at the southwestern end of the Philippine archipelago, two scattered groups consisting of few rocks, project out from the deep waters of the South China Sea. During low tides, much of the reef is above water. It even encloses a small lagoon. The rocks, known as “First Thomas Shoal” and “Second Thomas Shoal (also known as Ayungin),” are part of “Spratly islands” group and have gained in recent years some importance from a strategic point of view. Out of these two reefs, “Second Thomas Shoal is considered as a strategic gateway to Reed Bank, believed to be rich in oil and natural gas. Philippines claims that Reed bank tabletop, where all the oil and gas fields are supposed to be located, is within the country’s 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone.

There have been claims and counterclaims of littoral countries of the region, on these reefs, which are a part of Spratly islands. In 1999, in a sudden action, Malaysia occupied Erica Reef and Investigator Shoal. Responding to this, Philippines purposefully ran aground two ships, BRP Sierra Madre and BRP Benquet, on Ayungin (Second Thomas) Reef and Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal during the same year. China, claiming sovereignty over Spratly Islands, requested the Philippines to remove the grounded ships. The Philippines immediately replied that it will do so whenever it can remove the ships. However, the one on Scarborough Shoal, was the only ship that was removed. On the contrary , considering the importance of the Shoal as a gateway to reed bank, Philippines actually assigned soldiers to take shelter on the grounded ship at Ayungin Reef and they continue to do so even today.

In 2010, Manila awarded an Anglo-Filipino consortium a license to explore for gas on Reed Bank but drilling stalled last year due to the presence of Chinese ships. Manila says that Reed bank is within the coutries 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone, whereas Chinese say that it is part of Spratly Islands over which China has undisputed sovereignty.

This week, all of a sudden, three Chinese ships including a naval frigate appeared on the horizon and moved up to a distance of 9 Km from the old and rusting transport ship, ran aground by Philippines and over which a dozen Philipino marines have been stationed. This action immediately ringed alarm bells all over ASEAN as many of the members already have running territorial disputes with China. A Philippines spokesman asked the Chinese to immediately pull out of the area as they were clearly in the waters belonging to Philippines. Chinese refused to vacate from this area saying that “Second Thomas Shoal” was part of the Sparatly Islands over which China had indisputable sovereignty.

So, here we go again. China having just managed to create another international incident similar to what it did on Depsang plains in northeast Ladakh on border with India, where 30 or 40 Chinese troops encroached 27 Km on India's side of Line of control making it somewhat difficult to comprehend the logic and motive behind these repetitive Chinese actions.

An Analyst from Institute of Southeast Asian studies says: “ Tension at Second Thomas Shoal could prove more dangerous than last year's standoff at unoccupied Scarborough Shoal, given the presence of Philipino troops.” He adds: “It is hard to imagine China using force to gain control.... but some kind of blockade to drive out the Philipines troops would be a possibility. There is a real chance of escalation or miscalculation.” This feeling was echoed by another senior Philippine navy officer, who said that the Philippines believed China was trying to pressure it to leave the shoal. He added :“We don’t want to wake up one day with fresh structures sitting near our navy ship there. We have to bite the bullet and strengthen our position there or risk losing the territory.” China says, it was merely acting to prevent illegal fishing in Chinese waters.

There is another striking similarity between this incident and Depsang plain incident in Ladakh, which happened weeks before Chinese premier Li Keqiang was to visit India and hold important bilateral discussions. Here also, the incident has taken place just before US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel meets his Asia-Pacific counterparts at the so-called Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore at the weekend. The South China Sea is on the agenda of the regional security forum. Also Chinese President Xi Jinping will be visiting the United States in June. A Chinese military think tank have already put the blame for the incident on the US “pivot” back to Asia which had “shattered” the relative calm of the South China Sea, warning of crisis ahead.

After Philipino protests, Chinese frigate and some fishing boats have cleared the area but two Chinese marine surveillance ships remain near “Second Thomas Shoal.”

The flashpoint may not create fire at this point of time, just like Depsang plains incident, but potential of conflict remains creating much tension in South-East Asia and ASEAN.

31 May 2013.

Living under a shadow

If I have to comment about the India-ASEAN summit that took place on 20-21^st December 2012, in New Delhi, I can easily say without any doubt, that it is a summit clearly under a shadow. No ASEAN leader mentioned it in his speech, but it is obvious that everyone was acutely aware of the elephant in the room. In speeches, the Philippines and Vietnam referred to tensions in their region. Philippines Vice President Jejomar Binay said “At this time of rising concerns about maritime issues, the need to maintain a high level of maritime security and freedom of navigation offers us... an opportunity for enhanced cooperation.” Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was perhaps more explicit when he told the summit that closer maritime cooperation with India was needed because 70 percent of the world’s traffic in petroleum products passes through the Indian Ocean from the Middle East to East Asia. He said further: “While the center of the global economy is shifting eastward, the Indian and Pacific Oceans have been and will become even more important in providing the vital sea routes for trade and commerce.”

India is hosting this ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit in New Delhi to mark the 20th anniversary of the ASEAN-India dialogue partnership and the 10th anniversary of ASEAN-India Summit-level meetings. The theme of the summit is 'ASEAN-India Partnership for Peace and Shared Prosperity'. And it aims at strengthening ties across diverse areas like trade, energy, security and cultural connectivity. The prime ministers of Singapore, Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam, the presidents of Myanmar and Indonesian, and the vice president of the Philippines are attending the summit along with representatives of Thailand, Laos, and Brunei.

Someone may ask; why this sudden anxiety about the maritime security? The answer is not too difficult to find. The South China Sea has become Asia’s biggest potential military flashpoint. The core of the problem is the possibility of huge oil reserves in the region, which are being explored in their territorial waters by Vietnam and the Philippines at present. China claims a huge looping area out of the South China Sea as its own. This claim conflicts directly against sovereignty claims by Vietnam and the Philippines as well as Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. In November 2012, China announced a plan to board and search ships that illegally enter what it considers its territory in the South China Sea. A dangerous proposition that could lead to naval clashes.

China also managed to breach the unity of ASEAN over this issue by using Cambodia, which was promised a largesse including a $100 million loan to set up Cambodia's largest cement plant. As a result, the ASEAN summit ended in acrimony in November 2012 over China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, with its leaders failing to agree on a concluding joint statement.

India is obviously relishing this moment, as countries of South East Asia are looking to India now for maritime security. India has no territorial claim in the region, yet it has interests. It is exploring for oil and gas with Vietnam in an area contested by China. Also there is also a plan to ship liquefied natural gas from Russia through the Malacca Straits in future. It is interesting to note that few weeks ago, India’s navy chief made a statement that he was ready to deploy vessels to the South China Sea to protect exploration interests there, if needed.

In the vision statement agreed at this New Delhi summit, India and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have set their sights on a new “strategic partnership” that would bring closer political, security and economic cooperation, with special importance for the need for freedom of navigation, a contentious issue because of competing claims with Beijing over parts of the South China Sea.

It is obvious that ASEAN considers the presence of naval ships of few major powers in south China sea as a guarantee for their safety. They have already convinced US, which has started stationing a larger force of marines in south east Asia. Presence of India in Southeast Asia would provide them greater additional safety against being dominated by China.

India has great plans for improving connectivity with south east Asia. It is pushing for quick implementation of the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and its extension to Laos and Cambodia. It is also planning to launch a second route that would run from India through Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia to Vietnam. These plans may take time to fructify. Since annual trade between ASEAN and India has nearly doubled in four years and India’s growing economic clout makes it appealing as a balance to other Asian powers. The emphasis on maritime security gains importance.

As China scare looms large over south east Asia, India may find that it's twenty year old, Look east policy, is finally beginning to gain traction. The New Delhi summit underscores India’s growing role in one of the world’s fastest-growing regions, South East Asia.

22 December 2012

Great magician's cheap tricks

China is at it again. In one stroke, it has managed to antagonize again many of its neighbours, from India in the west to Philippines in the east. Starting from May 15, 2012, China's police departments started issuing a new passport called e-passport, which contains a microchip that stores digitized data of the bearer's fingerprint and signature. This is a good move no doubt because it improves the safety of the traveler and effectively prevents forgery.

However, many of China's neighbours like India, Vietnam and Philippines are furious about this new passport, because it has a watermark map of China in which Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, Aksaichin area in Ladakh and various islands in South China Sea, including the Paracels and Spratlys are shown as as Chinese territory.

It is a calculated move to pin prick these countries only, because this map does not contain East China Sea islands administered by Japan, which calls them as Senkaku, and are being claimed by Beijing as Diaoyu islands. Japan acknowledges this fact as a Japanese foreign ministry official says, “We have confirmed that disputed islands in South China Sea appear in a map printed on new Chinese passports.” “On the other hand, Senkaku doesn’t. Therefore, we are not in a position to comment or complain.”

It is obvious that this Chinese move is intentional because this map is appearing only on the Chinese passports issued to normal citizens. This map does not appear on diplomatic or official passports.

Philippines claims part of the Spratly islands as their territory and responding to this prick from China, Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario sent Beijing a formal protest letter, calling the maps “an excessive declaration of maritime space in violation of international law”. He says that, “The Philippines strongly protests the inclusion of the nine-dash lines in the e-Passport as such image covers an area that is clearly part of the Philippines’ territory and maritime domain,” Philippines foreign ministry spokesman Raul Hernandez has added: “If we allow that, then that would mean acquiescence to their claim of the whole of the South China Sea.”

Vietnamese foreign ministry spokesman Luong Thanh Nghi has told reporters that the Chinese documents amounted to a violation of Hanoi’s sovereignty and it had protested to the embassy. He says that Vienam Officials handed Chinese representatives “a diplomatic note opposing the move, asking China to abolish the wrongful contents printed in these electronic passports”

This new watermark map also shows Taiwan and entire South China Sea as Chinese territory. This has made other countries in South China sea, like Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia also infuriated and all of them have protested to China.

Chinese have been trying these tricks in India for quite some time now. Some time back, Chinese started issuing stapled visas to residents of Jammu and Kashmir, terming it a “disputed territory” and had created a diplomatic row. This move was followed by denial of visas to those hailing from Arunachal Pradesh State.

Few weeks back, when India noticed this new watermark map on Chinese e-passports, it reacted strongly and told Chinese foreign ministry that this development is unacceptable. As expected, Chinese did nothing and responded with a general statement addressed to all the countries saying that the issue needed to be dealt with in a "level-headed and rational manner". A Chinese spokesman said that "Hope the countries regard it in a cool-headed manner. China would like to maintain communication with other counties to ensure convenience of travel for both Chinese and foreigners."

India has however not kept quiet and has responded by starting to imprint India's map with Aksaichin and Arunachal Pradesh shown as parts of India, on all Chinese passports received by the Indian embassy for issue of Indian visas from Chinese nationals, effectively nullifying the Chinese one-upmanship.

Indian Government reiterated to Indian Parliament this week that “ China continues to be in illegal occupation of approximately 38,000 sq km area in Jammu & Kashmir state of India. In addition, China also holds under the so-called 'Sino-Pakistan Boundary Agreement of 1963', 5,180 sq km of Indian territory in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir ceded by Pakistan to China,"

It is very difficult to predict or analyze these subtle pin pricks by China. Probably Chinese think it as a game or a move. It may be a good idea for other small nations to follow India's example and start printing their versions of maps along with their visas on Chinese passports instead of just sending protesting notes.

25 November 2012

Is ASEAN unity an illusion?

Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN is heading towards serious trouble. First signs of the brewing trouble came last July, when ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting in Phnom Penh, ended for the first time in the bloc's 45 years history without issuing a joint communique. Serious differences have arisen amongst members about dealings with an increasingly assertive China, making sovereignty claims in South China Sea, over the stretch of water off its south coast and to the east of mainland Southeast Asia, also partly claimed by ASEAN members like Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan and Malaysia.

Yearly summit meeting of all nations that constitute ASEAN, commenced in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on Sunday, 18^th November 2012, under chairmanship of Cambodia, which has been using its powers as ASEAN chair this year, to limit discussion on the South China Sea. Next day, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said, while making concluding remarks in the meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, that all 10 members of ASEAN had agreed at a leaders’ summit on Sunday not to “internationalize” their disputes over rival claims to the South China Sea. This was immediately objected to by Philippine President Benigno Aquino, who abruptly raised his hand and tersely interjected. “There were several views expressed yesterday on ASEAN unity, which we did not realize would be translated into an ASEAN consensus.”

Later, a Cambodian foreign ministry official, Kao Kim Hourn, made an official statement “Southeast Asian leaders had decided that they will not internationalize the South China Sea from now on." A Philippine spokesman also clarified about President's statement saying "For the record, this was not our understanding." He further added that " The ASEAN route is not the only route for us. As a sovereign state, it is our right to defend our national interests." clearly referring to the help from US. This exchange of words brought out the disagreements between ASEAN Governments, who have sought to maintain a unified public presence preparing for this summit and avoid public bickering through the media following divisive foreign ministerial meetings in July.

Chinese have very effectively used Cambodia, a staunch China ally, to drive a wedge in ASEAN. Cambodia's apparent reward is a Chinese largesse to that country, which also includes a $100 million loan to set up Cambodia's largest cement plant, signed on the day Chinese premier Wen arrived in Cambodia.

Meanwhile Japan, who also has a territorial dispute with China over some islands in South China Sea, also came out with the statement that says “Issue of the South China Sea, is of common concern for the international community, which would have direct impact on peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific." This view is also supported by US, which says that other countries beyond ASEAN and China also have a national interest in resolving the dispute.

ASEAN had appointed Thailand, as their official coordinator for discussions with China, which also appears to support US view. The core issue of the dispute between ASEAN nations and China is the presence of large estimated reserves of oil and gas. Estimates for proven and undiscovered oil reserves in the entire sea range from 28 billion to as high as 213 billion barrels of oil, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration. Thailand however tries to separate territorial claims from freedom of navigation in South China Sea, which is the concern of all countries.

ASEAN General Secretary Surin Pitsuwan says that ASEAN countries had agreed on Sunday to formally ask China to start talks on a Code of Conduct (CoC) in South China Sea aimed at easing the risk of naval flashpoints. Chinese say that they do not recall any such request received from Cambodian Prime Minister. On the contrary, they refer to the statement by him that ASEAN had reached a "common position" not to internationalize the issue.

The main problem for ASEAN to take any decision is their 45 year year old process of decision making based on consensus, which means that rejection of any one member, would prevent the group from making a decision. This is now, what is preventing the block to arrive at a decision on any issue, where there is a difference of opinions. An international relations expert from the Indonesia Defense University, Bantarto Bandoro, says that “It could be the end of ASEAN as we know it. There will be too many divided issues for them to get a consensus every time. Different positions toward South China Sea has proven it,” He says that ASEAN must take decisions by adopting a voting system. Only then, it can become a credible International organization and would be able to stand pressures from countries like China or US.

With Brunei now assuming mantle of Chairmanship for next one year, Chinese may not be able to influence ASEAN, as much as they did last year. However, ASEAN would have to find a way out of present situation to avoid a deep split up.

21 November 2012

Standing up to Goliath

All of us must have read the famous story from the Bible of the battle between a young lad named David and a mighty warrior Goliath. In this story, David armed with just a sling shot and 5 smooth stones manages to defeat a giant warrior Goliath in full armour. There is a famous painting of the battle scene painted by Osmar Schindler (circa 1888) showing David standing up against the mighty Goliath and his jeering army. I am very much reminded of this battle scene after reading about the present stand off between China and tiny archipelago state of Philippines.

Philippines, whose most powerful naval ship is a destroyer from second world war vintage, has simply refused to cave in to Chinese demands to vacate an atoll in South China Sea. This country no doubt has guts. Even the former foreign minister of Philippines has described this stand off as between an elephant and an ant. I think that it would be worth while to go in the history of this dispute and find out the realities.

The bone of contention in the dispute between China and other nations about some small islands in South China sea, arises from a fabulous claim made by China that all South China Sea belongs to it. To justify this claim, Chinese refer to some old obscure map prepared during Han Dynasty rule (1^st Century CE) . Chinese claim that this map shows all of South China Sea as Chinese territory. This claim is obviously not acceptable for other countries in the region like Vietnam and Philippines. This dispute mainly in dormant state till then, took a turn for the worst about 8 years back, when presence of Hydrocarbons was detected in the surrounding seas.

Spartley islands are a group of more than 750 reefs, islets, atolls, cays and islands. In all, there are more than 30000 islands and reefs there, with just 4 sq. Km land area in 425000 sq. Km area of sea. There are no native people staying on the islands but the seas around the islands are rich in fish and possible reserves of oil and gas. This archipelago is located about 200 miles west of Philippine island of Palawan, 300 miles north west of Malaysian state of Sabah and about 400 miles east of Vietnam. From nearest Chinese coastline of Hainan island it is as far away as 700 miles. Only about 45 islands are occupied by small numbers of military personnel from Vietnam, China, the Republic of China (Taiwan), Malaysia and the Philippines. Brunei also claims just one area of small islands. 

The dispute between China and Philippines began nearly 20 years ago when a reef known as of Mischief Reef” was seized by China from Philippines. Since then, many attempts to settle the issue have failed due to adamant position taken by China.

In 1998 Philippines made a formal protest to China about construction activity on Spartley islands and also presence of Chinese naval vassals there. However an agreement was reached between them in November 1998 about reducing tension in Spartleys and utilizing the natural resources jointly. However no further agreements could be made. There was widespread discontent in Philippines over Chinese actions; However the then president of Philippines Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was decidedly soft on Chinese.

In 2004 Philippines entered into an agreement with China for a Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking. When it was established that Hydrocarbons presence is a possibility near Spartley islands, Chinese suddenly became active and started claiming that area belongs to China.

In July 2011, when administration of President Benigno Aquino, who is more inclined towards Americans, was in place in Philippines, a group of Philippine parliamentarians flew to Pagasa island, sang national anthem and declared it Philippine territory. Pagasa island is located about 300 miles east of Palawan and has an airstrip and a small Philippine military base. Chinese were riled and made a big noise claiming that China had indispensable sovereignty over the island.

In March 2012, Philippines announced that it would start awarding oil exploration contracts in areas near Phillipines coast. Two blocks, just 49 miles off coast of Palawan (Towards Spartley islands) were included in the contracts. Chinese media as expected reacted very angrily to this. Philippines followed up this announcement with a military exercise on Palawan island itself, obviously telling the Chinese that they have full support of Uncle Sam.

In subsequent months, the barbs between Chinese and Philippians have reached a very high pitch. The center of dispute is now an area covering about 150 Sq. Miles and consisting of rocks, reefs and small islands and is known as Scarborough Shoal by the Philippines and Huangyan Island by China. This area is about 100 miles east of Palawak coast and more than 500 miles away from China. For last one month (April-May 2012) there has been a stand off between Chinese and Philippine fishing boats and coastguard near the outcrops. Recently, in a provocative act, a Chinese journalist was shown planting a flag on one of the rocks, on Chinese TV. Global Times, a paper produced by Communist Party in China has commented that "The Philippines needs to be taught a lesson for its aggressive nationalism. For China, the standoff over Huangyan Island is a matter of sovereignty. And now Manila needs to be defeated in this area... If the standoff escalates into a military clash, the international community should not be completely surprised".

To counter the Chinease threats, The president of the Philippines has tweeted a statement which makes it clear that the Philippines believes that America will help protect it from any Chinese aggression.

Philippines also has asked China to settle the issue at the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS).

Chinese however are continuing to make noises and also put commercial pressure on militarily weak Philippines. China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Fu Ying claims that the Scarborough Shoals are theirs and that it is the Philippines who are intruding into Chinese territory. Chinese authorities have warned its citizens against travelling to the Philippines and as a result, tour operators and tourists have avoided visiting the South East Asian nation for their holidays. China also has tightened inspections of fruit imports from Philippines.

It is very doubtful whether Chinese would take actual military action against Philippines in this case, as their case according to International law is very weak. Perhaps they are trying to measure the degree of American response in a test case. It also could be a way to divert attention of the people from the internal and domestic issues. Pakistan had tried this trick for many decades by raising Kashmir issue whenever there had been a domestic crisis.

However the tough posture adopted by Philippines and it's president must be appreciated. It is not easy for a small country to safeguard it's interests, when dealing with a much more powerful country. For India there is a lesson to be learnt from this episode, about dealing with China. I hope that the lesson would be learnt.

1 June 2012