Oh no! Not that boy again!

India's meteorological department published yesterday, it's yearly predictions about the monsoon rainy season 2015 and the predictions are not at all that comforting. According to IMD's long range predictions, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%. It expects below normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season with a 33% probability of rains being less than 90%, commonly referred to as a drought. This would mean that for second successive year, the rainfall will be deficient.

IMD says that there is a 35% probability of a 'below normal' monsoon with rains in the 90% to 96% range. The odds on normal rains (96%-104%) were placed at 28%, while there was a worrying 33% chance that rains could slip below the 90% mark. This appears to be nothing else but statistical jugglery, because for any event with three outcome probabilities, each probability is any way likely to be 33% only.

IMD gives reason for this expected less rainfall prediction as the much dreaded El Nino. IMD says that it has already developed in Pacific ocean and there is a high chance of its continuing through the long Indian summer. El Nino (means little boy in Spanish) is a geographical phenomenon that warms the surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. This warming up of ocean can be first observed around December in Peruvian waters of South America. This phenomenon occurs cyclically, after every three to seven years. The phenomenon is quite insignificant but the after effects are quite devastating for the humans. Usually it leads to more rainfall in South America and substantial drop in the fish catch. El Nino has a dramatic effect on the trade winds across Pacific, blowing to the west. This results into triggering drought in Southeast Asia , Australia and parts of South Africa. It also reduces Monsoon rainfall in India, which impacts crops and livelihood of people. It generates cyclones in the central Pacific and stormy weather in southern and western US. The number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, however tend to go down. In Australia, El-Nino can cause cut in wheat crop output, reduces water supplies by cutting river flows, shrink city reservoirs and dry out forests, which can trigger bush fires. As against this it increases rain in North America , improving crop prospects. Major El-Nino's have happened in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2002-03. The severe El Nino in 1998 killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage to crops, infrastructure and mines in Australia and other parts of Asia.

Exactly opposite outcome results when the surface temperatures of the eastern and central Pacific ocean cool down substantially. This is known as a little girl or La-Nina. It triggers stronger trade winds across the Pacific and around northern Australia, triggering above average rains and number of cyclones. In Indonesia and parts of Australia, La Nina can bring flooding rains. In Argentina and the US plains, La Nina can trigger drought. La Nina causes more hurricanes in Atlantic and fewer in Pacific. Major La Nina events occurred in 1973-76, 1988-89 and 2010-12.

Last year ( 2014), after sensing a similar situation of a growing El Nino, IMD had predicted 'below normal' monsoon with 95% rainfall. The actual rainfall was even less or at 88% in the June-September, making 2014 a drought year. This resulted in 6.5% loss in production of summer crops. If rains turn deficient even this year, situation is likely to be more difficult because of back-to-back deficiency.

There are other after effects too besides the loss in agricultural production, from India's point of view. First is the drinking water shortage. Many states like Maharashtra are totally dependent on rainwater for drinking water needs. Fodder shortage may be another source of worry. In many parts of India, huge hydroelectric generating stations provide electric power. These depend entirely upon the rain water to generate power. Any drought like condition is bound to reduce availability of power.

This grim scenario appears to be a likely possibility, for which we need to brace ourselves up. The shortages however are always transitory in nature and can always be managed. What is the most scary part of this scenario is the effect that this would have on economy and the Indian Rupee, which are already under inflationary pressure.

This year, so far has not been a good one for India's farmers with heavy crop losses due to widespread hailstorms and freak rains. This has resulted with destruction of crops. Another poor summer crop season would add to the farmer's woes and drinking water shortages in states like Maharashtra. The states and federal Governments need to start preparing contingency plans to suit different rainfall probabilities such as seed banks, rainwater harvesting and efficient use procedures; only then the country can survive the crisis with minimal effects that cause agrarian distress.

24^th April 2015

Little boy is back!

It is said that any bad news is usually true. In February 2014, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology came out with a prediction which said that an El Niño weather pattern may occur in the coming months, parching Australia and parts of Asia while bringing rains to South America. International climate models surveyed by this bureau, showed that Pacific Ocean temperatures were approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds in the austral winter. It said that the tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed substantially in recent weeks and further warming is likely in the coming months. The US Climate Prediction Center and other global weather institutions also then predicted possibility of less rain in India during Monsoon this year due to the El Nino effect.

If the latest update from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is to believed, El Nino is almost a certainty. Bureau now says that the chance of an El Nino weather event developing in 2014 now exceeds 70 percent. That is definitely something we all should worry.

El Nino (means little boy in Spanish), warms the surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. This warming up of ocean can be first observed around December in Peruvian waters of South America. This phenomenon occurs cyclically, after every three to seven years. The phenomenon is quite insignificant but the after effects are quite devastating for the humans. Usually it leads to more rainfall in South America and substantial drop in the fish catch. El Nino has a dramatic effect on the trade winds across Pacific, blowing to the west. This results into triggering drought in Southeast Asia , Australia and parts of South Africa. It also reduces Monsoon rainfall in India, which impacts crops and livelihood of people. It generates cyclones in the central Pacific and stormy weather in southern and western US. The number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, however tend to go down. In Australia, El-Nino can cause cut in wheat crop output, reduces water supplies by cutting river flows, shrink city reservoirs and dry out forests, which can trigger bush fires. As against this it increases rain in North America , improving crop prospects. Major El-Nino's have happened in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2002-03. The severe El Nino in 1998 killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage to crops, infrastructure and mines in Australia and other parts of Asia.

So what are the prospects for this year for India and Asia. El Nino usually means extremely dry weather in India. The worst El Nino perhaps happened in 1997/98, which caused massive flooding along China's Yangtze river killing more than 1,500 people. El Nino can create severe drought in India, resulting in a major downfall in crop production. 2009, El Nino brought down monsoon rainfall in India. Since most of India's agriculture depends on monsoon rainfall, it could bring the agricultural production down substantially. Not only that, most of the people in peninsular India are totally dependent on rain water for their daily needs. If the rainfall is scanty, it would create water shortages and cities in peninsular India would go thirsty. It could also lead to a worst drought in Deccan. Sugar in India is derived from Sugar cane. This is one crop that requires huge quantities of water. With a scanty rainfall the sugar cane crop yields are expected to be poor, which means that international sugar prices are likely to hit the roof.

During March, Deccan plateau was badly hit with several hail storms damaging major crops which were almost ready for harvesting. If rains fail in coming months, the scenario is bound to be exceptionally grim.

Perhaps the worst spectre from India's point of view, besides the loss in agricultural production, is the likely drinking water shortage. Many states like Maharashtra are totally dependent on rainwater for drinking water needs. Fodder shortage may be another source of worry. In many parts of India, huge hydroelectric generating stations provide electric power. These depend entirely upon the rain water to generate power. Any drought like condition is bound to reduce availability of power.

India is in the process of electing a new Government right now and the results are expected by 16^th May 2014. El Nino might turn out to be the first major challenge before the new Government, which would have to brace up to meet the coming situation.

11^th April 2014

Return of the Spectre

It’s been almost five years, since this little boy,  made his last visit bringing unfathomable miseries and hardship to the people of Asia. Whenever he decides to visit, he always brings along with him, disasters starting from record floods to crippling droughts, wildfires and wild swings in weather patterns. The worst part of it is that the visit actually takes place somewhere far away, in eastern and central pacific, but the devastating effects are felt in Asia and cost Billions of Dollars to Asian Economies.

The Little boy is none other than El Nino (means little boy in Spanish), which warms the surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. This warming up of ocean can be first observed around December in Peruvian waters of South America. This phenomenon occurs cyclically, after every three to seven years. The phenomenon is quite insignificant but the after effects are quite devastating for the humans. Usually it leads to more rainfall in South America and substantial drop in the fish catch. El Nino has a dramatic effect on the trade winds across Pacific, blowing to the west. This results into triggering drought in Southeast Asia , Australia and parts of South Africa. It also reduces Monsoon rainfall in India, which impacts crops and livelihood of people. It generates cyclones in the central Pacific and stormy weather in southern and western US. The number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, however tend to go down. In Australia, El-Nino can cause cut in wheat crop output, reduces water supplies by cutting river flows, shrink city reservoirs and dry out forests, which can trigger bush fires. As against this it increases rain in North America , improving crop prospects. Major El-Nino's have happened in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2002-03. The severe El Nino in 1998 killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage to crops, infrastructure and mines in Australia and other parts of Asia.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology says that an El Niño weather pattern may occur in the coming months, parching Australia and parts of Asia while bringing rains to South America. International climate models surveyed by this bureau, show that Pacific Ocean temperatures are approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds in the austral winter. It says that the tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed substantially in recent weeks and further warming is likely in the coming months. The US Climate Prediction Center and other global weather institutions have already predicted possibility of less rain in India during Monsoon this year due to the El Nino effect.

Along with scanty rain prediction for 2014, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, is also predicting that depending on the size of the El Niño, 2014 and, more likely, 2015, might turn out to be the warmest years on record. Gavin Schmidt, deputy director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, says that during the Earth’s warmest years, 2010 and 2005, similar weather patterns were seen. Indonesia’s Meteorological, Climatology and Geophysics Agency also says that it’s been almost five years since the last El Nino event. An El Niño trend is likely to develop this year.

What does this mean for India? El Nino, which occurs every four to 12 year cyclically had last hit India's Monsoon in 2009, leading to the worst drought in the country in nearly four decades. If El Nino hits this year, then a grim prediction awaits India saying that El Nino conditions may possibly impact Monsoon this year, triggering drought in parts of India. El Nino can create severe drought in India, resulting in a major downfall in crop production. It would also bring down soybean, palm oil, sugar and rice yields from Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. In Australia it brings down crops of wheat, barley and canola. In China, Corn production would be affected. Only plus point of El Nino is that a strong El-Nino is beneficial to crops such as coffee and cocoa and keep their global prices in check.

Scientists in India are still debating about whether El Nino conditions will hit India and what would be it's intensity? However precautionary measures need to start almost immediately. A senior scientist, engaged with research programme on Climate Change, agriculture and Food security (CCAFS), says that the policy makers can certainly not take a chance. He adds:

“Though India had enough food-grain stock to meet any drought situation, there is a need to take precautionary measures to protect the vulnerable farmers. Extending effective insurance cover, timely availability of weather information and proper distribution of water, seeds and other ingredients are some of the measures which will help the country in adverse situation.”

There are other factors too, besides the loss in agricultural production from India's point of view. First is the drinking water shortage. Many states like Maharashtra are totally dependent on rainwater for drinking water needs. Fodder shortage may be another source of worry. In many parts of India, huge hydroelectric generating stations provide electric power. These depend entirely upon the rain water to generate power. Any drought like condition is bound to reduce availability of power.

This grim scenario appears to be a likely possibility, for which we need to brace ourselves up. The shortages however are always transitory in nature and can always be managed. What is the most scary part of this scenario is the effect that this would have on economy and the Indian Rupee, which are already reeking under double digit inflation and costly money.

Unfortunately there are no quick measures or remedies.

27^th February 2014

A clogged urban future

A friend mentioned to me yesterday, an interesting calculation about traffic congestion on roads in my hometown, Pune in India. This calculation is made by an engineer, who works in the roads department of the Municipal corporation. According to this calculation, if all the four wheeled vehicles plying on city roads are made to stand in a straight line, touching bumper to bumper, the total length works out as double the length of all city roads taken together. Such is the congestion of vehicles in the Pune city. It is a common experience here, that if vehicular traffic moving smoothly on any busy road is interrupted even for few seconds, for reasons such as a vehicle pulling up from parking slot or a vehicle taking a U turn, vehicles start piling up on both sides almost instantly. If this interruption continues for more than a half or a full minute, we have regular traffic jam, which may last for any length of time. Unfortunately, this clogging of traffic, is not the only clogging we face here. We have water clogging the roads, whenever there are few spells or sharp showers of rain. We have clogging of garbage all the time, with garbage cans overflowing and removal mechanisms unable to cope up with piling garbage.

I recently came across a report describing the precarious situations faced by the residents in some of the Asian cities. This report in a way removed one disbelief nurtured by me in my mind, that my hometown holds the distinction of being filthiest or with most congested roads. This however is no solace to me, that most of the urban centers in Asia are suffering the same fate as my hometown.

Talking about cities in India first, Mumbai with more than a 12 Million inhabitants has a population density of 20,000 inhabitants per square KM, which makes it one of the world's most densely populated cities. Its packed suburban trains carry more that 7 million people every day. Every year more than 3000 commuters are killed while travelling, sometimes falling from open doors or hit while crossing the tracks. During rush hours, trains are so crowded that it is difficult to breathe even. Mumbai offers the best economic opportunities for the migrant labour, who keep arriving in large numbers every day to Mumbai and since housing is almost impossible to get in Mumbai, they often build shanties on river banks (such as river 'Mithi'), storm drains and even foot paths. Since they can not avail of any civil services, they just dump garbage anywhere they find some space. This clogs the storm drains and impedes the flow of storm rainwater.

Toady, out of India's 1.2-billion population, only 30 percent live in cities, far lower than the 50.6 percent in China or the 70-80 percent in developed countries. Just imagine, what would happen to Mumbai, if 50 % of Indian population migrates to cities. Even at present, with an astronomical rise in the population, pollution and the micro weather of the cities are becoming quite intolerable. This fact and the high living standards of country's burgeoning middle class in the cities, have created great demand for air conditioners, microwave ovens, washing machines and other electrical items. This has no wonder, created a great strain on the power requirements. We have seen how this strain can affect a city in last week's power outage all over north India.

Considering the Asian cities outside India, Dhaka city has already become a moribund city and is facing the worst transport infrastructure problems in its history. In January 2009, the government promised to tackle the crisis with an array of ambitious rail, bus and road projects, but most are still on paper. Intelligentsia in Bangladesh feel that it is dying fast and there is no hope that it can be saved. However, traffic jams are by no means unique to Dhaka. In the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, experts predict that with its aging bus network and lack of a suburban train system, the capital will reach total gridlock by 2014. A global commuter satisfaction survey carried out in 2011 ranks Jakarta in the bottom position.

Bangkok and Manila have been hit by the most devastating floods in decades over past year. Yet, on the outskirts of Manila, vital forested areas have been destroyed to make way for housing developments catering to growing middle and upper classes and within the city squatters have been building shanties at their own will. This rapid urbanization without proper planning is blocking the natural waterways . This and the neglected drainage systems, are the two major factors behind the deadly floods that have battered the Philippine capital Manila in recent times. Thailand capital Bangkok has been actually built on swampland. But as building boom shows no sign of abating with apartment towers mushrooming around the city, the city is slowly sinking and risks being below sea level in half a century from now. Bangkok also depends heavily on ground water to meet the growing needs of its factories and 12 million inhabitants. Aggressive groundwater extraction is taking a heavy toll as groundwater levels are dropping lower and lower.

According to experts, the principal reasons for this disastrous situation faced by urban conglomerates in Asia are not difficult to find. Poor strategic planning, paltry investment in infrastructure and a lack of political will, have made these overcrowded cities highly vulnerable to the pressures from ever increasing population density, shortage of water and climate change. McKinsey Global Institute research centre reports that India alone needs 350-400 KM (around 250 miles) of new metros and subways a year and 19,000-25,000 KM of roads. If we talk of Asia as a whole, these figures would rise to astronomical levels.

The living conditions in the cities of Asia have deteriorated to such an extent that even with ever increasing prosperity, the inhabitants are still forced to dwell their lives in the same squalid conditions faced by them, when they were not so well off.

Is their a solution? At least in India, my answer is negative. With the democratic set up, there is almost no chance of any political leadership taking up unpleasant corrective steps. All major cities in India appear to be doomed. How long would they survive, one may never know. But the process might have already began.

14 August 2012

Why India prefers this little girl ?

Two absolutely natural but cyclic phenomenon bring unfathomable miseries and hardship to people of Asia. They bring along with them, disasters starting from record floods to crippling droughts, wildfires and wild swings in weather patterns. Actually, these natural phenomenon take place somewhere far away, in eastern and central pacific, but the devastating effects cost Billions of Dollars to Asian Economies.

The Little boy or El Nino in Spanish, warms the surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. This warming up of ocean can be first observed around December in Peruvian waters of South America. This phenomenon occurs cyclically, after every three to seven years. The phenomenon is quite insignificant but the after effects are quite devastating for the humans. Usually it leads to more rainfall in South America and substantial drop in the fish catch. El Nino has a dramatic effect on the trade winds across Pacific, blowing to the west. This results into triggering drought in Southeast Asia , Australia and parts of South Africa. It also reduces Monsoon rainfall in India, which impacts crops and livelihood of people. It generates cyclones in the central Pacific and stormy weather in southern and western US. The number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, however tend to go down In Australia, El-Nino can cause cut in wheat crop output, reduces water supplies by cutting river flows, shrink city reservoirs and dry out forests, which can trigger bush fires. As against this it increases rain in North America , improving crop prospects. Major El-Nino's have happened in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2002-03. The severe El Nino in 1998 killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage to crops, infrastructure and mines in Australia and other parts of Asia.

When little girl or La-Nina occurs, it produces exactly opposite effects. Here, the surface temperatures of the eastern and central Pacific ocean cool down substantially. This triggers stronger trade winds across the Pacific and around northern Australia, triggering above average rains and number of cyclones. In Indonesia and parts of Australia, La Nina can bring flooding rains. In Argentina and the US plains, La Nina can trigger drought. La Nina causes more hurricanes in Atlantic and fewer in Pacific. Major La Nina events occurred in 1973-76, 1988-89 and 2010-12.

Even though this little boy and girl create global impacts, their effects on Asian economies are particularly severe. El Nino can create severe drought in India, resulting in a major downfall in crop production. It would also bring down soybean, palm oil, sugar and rice yields from Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. In Australia it brings down crops of wheat, barley and canola. In China, Corn production would be affected. But a strong El-Nino is beneficial to crops such as coffee and cocoa and keep their global prices in check. La Nina causes exactly opposite effect to El-Nino. The La-Nina effect of 2010-12 has brought bumper rains to India and a record production of food grains.

This little boy and girl are such dominant factors affecting various crop productions in Asia that the commodity markets can be completely spooked or floored, if punters sense La-Nina, whereas for the Governments and ordinary people, the effect is exactly opposite. They welcome La-Nina. The commodity markets may get extremely bullish, even at the whiff of El-Nino, whereas on Governments and ordinary people the effects are just opposite.

The Asian Monsoon or rainy season has just began with Thailand getting first rains in May. Indian meteorological department has predicted normal summer rains as there is no trace of El-Nino as yet. In India, a male child is still preferred by many over a girl or a female child. Yet with so much at stake on the timely arrivals of the Monsoon, I am sure that everyone in India would always prefer this Little girl La-Nina and may never want this little boy, El-Nino any time at all.

11 May 2012